BCG in The Nordics 

Europe stands at a turning point. By investing strategically, it can boost competitiveness, lead the green transition, and strengthen resilience for decades to come. This report, created by BCG and Confederation of Danish Industry, outlines how Europe can rebuild its foundation for prosperity through modern, connected, and sustainable infrastructure.

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Most Nordic construction companies find themselves at a crossroads: a look into five-year total shareholder returns reveals that they have clearly fallen behind their American and European peers and most other industries (see Exhibit 1). These results are driven by both limited growth amid challenging market conditions and generally low profitability levels.

While the best-in-class Nordic construction players have achieved 4%–5% EBIT, their European counterparts, including integrated players, manage up to 10+% EBIT - indicating not only that the Nordics have some catching up to do but also that better numbers are clearly achievable.

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Around 20% of companies in the Nordics—Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden—are under financial pressure. For 7%, that pressure is severe enough to warrant restructuring. However, the situation is highly deaveraged between the countries, with some experiencing greater financial stress than others.

That’s according to BCG’s third annual Transform and Special Situations (TSS) Index, which tracks the number of publicly held companies in Europe and select Asia-Pacific countries facing financial and operational stress. Our study assessed approximately 400 listed Nordic companies based on 12 performance and financial stability KPIs and companies’ exposure to macroeconomic risks.

After increasing steadily for several years and surging in 2023, bankruptcy rates region-wide plateaued in 2024. That said, situation is highly deaveraged across the countries; in Finland bankruptcies continued to increase, while bankruptcy rates declined in other Nordic countries. While the rate of increase in bankruptcies has been lower in the Nordics than in the EU overall, the absolute level of bankruptcies remains on par with or slightly above the European average.

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After a decade of rapid progress, with costs falling more than 60% over the past decade, the industry is now under pressure, as developers face surging project costs (up 30% to 40% in the past two years), higher interest rates, supply chain bottlenecks, and growing geopolitical uncertainty. Meanwhile, governments continue to push ambitious offshore wind targets. The European Union alone increased its target of 300 GW of installed offshore wind capacity to 360 GW by 20501 , nearly a tenfold increase from today’s installed capacity.

More than 66 GW is expected to be tendered globally in 2025, but competitive intensity is weakening. Developers have become more selective and recent auction failures and delays in Europe highlight the growing gap between ambition and feasibility. Some governments are now actively revising support frameworks accordingly; others risk falling behind.

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From April to May 2025, BCG surveyed more than 90 senior executives involved in digital and AI in the construction sector across Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Respondents represented the full value chain: asset owners and managers, design and engineering firms, construction and EPC companies, and service and maintenance providers. The survey assessed maturity across five dimensions: strategy and leadership alignment, IT and data foundations, people and operating models, adoption of digital and AI technologies, and realized business outcomes. Our insights in this article are based not only on the survey findings but also BCG’s experience in the sector.

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